‘Of course,’ Richard continued, as he cut the fat from his chop,‘I will have some influence in the new government, even if Portland does not immediately offer me a Cabinet post. That’s understandable under the circumstances. Once the cloud of impropriety has lifted from my shoulders I will be back in office. Meanwhile, it would be most useful if something could be found for you, Arthur.’

‘Me?’ Arthur had been about to bite into a slice of buttered bread, and now lowered it as he stared at his brother.‘But I am a backbencher. And I supported the last government. I hardly think Portland will be in such a forgiving mood as you imagine.’

‘You supported Grenville out of a sense of patriotism.The need for order and all that.You were not the only Tory to take his shilling. In any case, Portland’s position is not so secure that he would turn down the opportunity of recruiting another member of Parliament to his side, particularly as you are my brother and my opinion counts for something.’

Arthur pursed his lips and made no comment on Richard’s hubris. Besides, there was truth in what he said. The present situation offered opportunities for those ready to grasp them, and at present Arthur’s military career had stalled in the absence of any major operations against France. That meant abandoning his disdain for political factions, and joining the ranks of the Tories. In truth, Arthur felt that his values were largely the same as those espoused by the Tories, but he was wary of allowing himself to become embroiled in a web of political obligations that might tie his hands at a future date when it might be best to exercise independent judgement. It would be an even more bitter pill indeed if he were forced to act against his conscience.

Arthur glanced across the table at his brother. ‘Is there any word on who Portland intends to include in his Cabinet?’

Richard nodded and finished chewing a mouthful of lamb before he replied. ‘It’s no secret that he wants Castlereagh to return to the War Office, and George Canning is likely to be offered the post of Foreign Secretary.’

‘That will make for some interesting Cabinet meetings,’ Arthur mused. ‘Those two are hardly on speaking terms as it is.’

‘I know.’ Richard smiled.‘What wouldn’t I give to be there when the altercations begin? Of course, the tricky bit will be finding someone willing to take on the role of Lord Lieutenant of Ireland. With all the trouble there has been there recently, it’s something of a poisoned chalice. Unless the war is prosecuted more actively and with greater success, we shall have a perpetual state of resentment and rebellion in Ireland.’

‘Well at least with Canning and Castlereagh behind the war effort we can be sure that it will be prosecuted with vigour. It will need to be, for I can see no early end to the conflict.’

Richard glanced up, knife and fork poised over the remains of his lamb chop. ‘Indeed? Why is that? Do please tell me, Arthur.’

‘Very well.’ Arthur collected his thoughts. ‘Foremost because of Bonaparte’s continued run of victories. Even if Eylau was no triumph, the Russians were still forced to retreat and will continue to be cautious while they have but a few Prussians left to aid them in continuing the war with France. If Bonaparte strips men from his garrisons across Europe he will be able to renew his advance in the spring, and no doubt force a decisive enough victory to persuade the Tsar to negotiate. The only hope for us is that the Tsar continues to defy Bonaparte and retreats into the heart of Russia, drawing the French army after him. But I doubt that Bonaparte would be rash enough to take the risk.’

‘Risk? What risk?’

Arthur looked at his brother in surprise.‘Why, Richard, have you any idea of the distances involved? Even the best supplied and disciplined of armies would be broken by such a campaign. Believe me, such an undertaking would dwarf the marches our forces had to make in India. Nor would Bonaparte be able to conduct his operations for long. Any invasion of Russian soil would have to be complete by the time autumn came for fear of being caught in the Russian winter.’ Arthur shook his head. ‘I can’t think for a moment that Napoleon would be so rash as to lead his army against the Tsar. It would be sheer madness to attempt it.’ He paused and sipped his coffee before continuing. ‘Let us assume that he makes peace with Russia. Then Britain alone remains at war with France. The Royal Navy makes French invasion unlikely, and our lack of manpower makes British invasion of the continent an impossibility. So we have a stalemate. For the present. Fortunately Bonaparte has committed a grievous error in banning trade between the continent and Britain. He has caused great resentment amongst his allies and subject territories. In time that will play into our hands. Meanwhile, we must offer the European powers some hope.’

‘It would make a fine change from offering them money,’ Richard interrupted sourly. ‘Pitt nearly bankrupted the country with the vast sums we handed over to our allies. And much good it did us.’

‘I’m afraid that Britain will still have to finance any allies we may find in the future. But there are other means to inspire them. Since you mentioned Pitt, let me tell you of a viable scheme I suggested to him not long before he died. A way to keep the war open on land. One that would vex Bonaparte, and prove that he was not quite so invincible as his propaganda machine makes out.That is to wage war in the Iberian Peninsula.’

‘Spain and Portugal? How would that profit Britain?’

‘While Spain is an ally of France she is a legitimate target for hostility. Spain is also weak militarily and even a modestly sized British army could create havoc. Perhaps enough to force Napoleon to send forces to assist his Spanish allies. And thereby provide the means for us to demonstrate that French soldiers and French generals can be defeated. News of such defeats would be music to the ears of other continental powers.’

‘That may be,’ Richard agreed. ‘But what if Napoleon himself took to the field in Spain? What if he inflicted a crushing defeat on your modestly sized British army? Then such an intervention would only serve to enhance his reputation, diminish ours and discourage any potential allies.’

‘There is that risk,’ Arthur admitted. ‘The commander of our forces would have to be very circumspect indeed. He would have to avoid any battle where there was any risk of defeat.The key to our strategy would have to lie in tying down enemy forces and defeating them in detail as and when the opportunity arose. We would also enjoy certain advantages denied to the French. Since we have won the war at sea we could freely supply our men along the coast, and even land detachments to cause trouble at our whim. Our enemies, however, would have long land-based chains of supply and communication stretching back to France. Better still, the French army’s custom of living off the land would win them few friends in Spain. To the extent that it might well cause Spain to switch her allegiance to our side.’

‘That is a far-fetched supposition, some might argue.’

‘It is only a possibility,’ Arthur conceded. ‘But I can see no other profitable deployment of our land forces on the continent. Certainly not one that offers as much chance of undermining Bonaparte.’ He drained his cup and set it down in its saucer.‘It is certainly what I would do if I were deciding Britain’s military policy.’