“I made the mistake of saving his life,” Shigeru replied. “He can turn any action into a studied insult.”

“And how do you intend to respond?” Arai spoke lightly, but a new seriousness had crept into the conversation, and Shigeru was aware of it. Only Kiyoshige and Takeshi sat close enough to hear. And the woman.

“Forgive me, Lord Arai, I would like to discuss my response with you, but it is a private matter for your ears only.” He glanced at Shizuka.

She sat without moving, a slight smile on her face. Arai said, “You may speak freely in front of Muto Shizuka. You are not accustomed to the way we do things in the West. You must get used to women taking part in these discussions if you are also to talk to Maruyama Naomi.”

“Am I to have that pleasure?”

“It seems she is on her way to Terayama. She is a great admirer of the work of Sesshu, both the paintings and the gardens. You will meet her there-quite by chance, of course.” Arai laughed again, seeing that his words had not quite dispelled Shigeru’s misgivings, and turned to Shizuka. “You will have to make a formal oath to Lord Otori to convince him.”

She came forward a little and said in a calm, clear voice, “Lord Otori’s secrets are safe with me. I will never reveal them to anyone. I swear it.”

“There,” Arai said. “You can trust her. I promise it.”

She touched her head to the ground before him. Shigeru had to be satisfied or risk offending Arai.

“It is true that Sadamu considers himself offended by me,” he said. “But it is convenient for him; it gives him an excuse to do what the Iida have long intended-to expand into the Middle Country at the expense of the Otori. The silver mines around Chigawa, the rich seaport of Hofu, and the fertile lands in the South all attract them. But Sadamu will not be satisfied with the Middle Country alone: he seeks to control the entire Three Countries; sooner or later he will move against the West. I believe an alliance between the Seishuu and the Otori would dissuade him in the first instance and would defeat him if it came to war.”

“You must know that the Seishuu prefer to keep peace through diplomacy and alliances,” Arai said.

“I can hardly believe this is your own preference. Your family have never cared for the Tohan, so it is said.”

“Maybe not, but I am just one small part of the clan. My father is still alive and I have three brothers. Furthermore, Lady Maruyama’s marriage, and several others-my own wife will probably be chosen for me from a family sympathetic to Iida, if not actually related to him-have brought the whole of the West much closer to the Tohan.” He leaned forward and said quietly, “The Otori are a great clan, a historic family, possibly the greatest in the Three Countries-but what has happened to them? What were they doing while the Iida were negotiating these alliances? You know what people say-that while the Otori skulk in Hagi, the rest of the Middle Country will be stolen from them and they won’t even notice!”

“That’s an insult-”Takeshi began, but Shigeru silenced him, putting his hand on his brother’s shoulder.

“Many mistakes have been made,” he admitted, “but surely it is not too late to remedy some of them.”

“I will speak to my father,” Arai said. “But I can make no promises. We may not care much for the Tohan, but to be honest with you, we have little love for some of the Otori allies either, in particular our nearest neighbors, the Noguchi. It may be very imprudent for us to openly defy the Tohan at this time. We have nothing to gain from it. I came to meet you because I liked what I’d heard of you, and I don’t mind telling you I like what I see now. But my preferences can have very little influence on the policies of the West.”

“At least give us the assurance that you will not stab us in the back while we fight the Tohan in the East.”

“So it will come to war?”

“I believe Sadamu will attack the Otori next summer. We will defeat them but not if we have to fight on two fronts.”

“If Maruyama Naomi agrees to that, then there’s every possibility the Arai will too. And Lady Naomi will almost certainly choose the more peaceful solution, for that is the Maruyama way.”

The meat was ready, but despite its succulent gamy flavor, the day’s vigorous exercise, and the crisp night air, Shigeru ate with little appetite and his sleep was restless, not only because of the many flasks of wine and the hard ground. His earlier confidence of the wisdom and desirability of the alliance was replaced by a more realistic appreciation of its difficulties, the many obstacles and the need for months of careful diplomacy, months he could not spare.

“It was a mistake to come,” he said to Kiyoshige as they rode back to Yamagata.

“You never know. You have established a relationship-one that could become a friendship. And you know that you will meet Lady Maruyama before you return to Hagi.”

Shigeru made no reply, remaining unconvinced.

“Anyway,” Kiyoshige said, “it was worth it for the food alone!”

“And the hunting,” Takeshi agreed. “My only regret is I did not watch Lord Arai use the sword. If he fights in the same way as he rides, it would be something to see.”

“It doesn’t look as if you will ever have that opportunity,” Shigeru said. Their boyish cheerfulness irritated him. “Arai will never fight alongside us. The most we can hope for is not to make an enemy of him.”

The heaviness of his spirits was not dispelled when they returned to Yamagata and told Irie of the outcome of the meeting.

“I cannot remedy the neglect of years in a few short months,” Shigeru concluded his account. “We have wasted all of our opportunities while the Iida have been negotiating, making marriages and alliances. We are hemmed in on all sides. There is every sign that Sadamu is preparing an attack soon. I hoped to strengthen us against it, but I may simply be precipitating it. Will we ever be ready?”

“We must spend the winter preparing men and arms and planning strategy,” Irie replied. “The southern and eastern provinces are the most vulnerable. Rather than return to Hagi with you, I suggest I go to Noguchi and impress on him the need to stand firm and not give into Tohan intimidation.”

“And to start preparing men,” Shigeru said. “They must be in readiness to advance along the eastern border in spring.”

“Should I stay there for the winter to oversee it?”

“Send messages before the snow to let me know how the situation looks. I’ll decide then.”

Shigeru fell silent. “I am most concerned about spies,” he said finally. “I feel Sadamu watches us all the time and will know my every move. What can I do to escape his net?”

“Be very careful who you talk to and who else is there,” Irie replied. “Surround yourself only with warriors you know and trust. Choose servants only from Otori families.”

“Easier said than done,” Shigeru replied, thinking of Muto Shizuka.